Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
Browse all 79 skins in this case
Released: 12 Nov 2014
Opening it costs $6.38 and returns 59% of that on average. See the odds ↓
Case Contents
Special Items
Knives
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel
P2000 | Fire Elemental
P250 | Cartel
SCAR-20 | Cardiac
XM1014 | Tranquility
Glock-18 | Grinder
M4A4 | Griffin
M4A1-S | Basilisk
Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard
G3SG1 | Murky
MAG-7 | Firestarter
MP9 | Dart
UMP-45 | Delusion
Opening odds and value
Cost to open
$6.38
Case $3.89 + key $2.49
Average drop value
$3.73
Expected market value of one opening
Average return
59%
#4 of 42 cases · 65% paying the key with Steam balance
Chance to profit
10.7%
Drop worth at least $6.38
Drop odds by rarity
| Rarity | Chance | 1 in | Items | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (blue) | 79.92% | 1 | 5 | $1.40 |
| Restricted (purple) | 15.98% | 6 | 4 | $6.18 |
| Classified (pink) | 3.2% | 31 | 3 | $11.70 |
| Covert (red) | 0.64% | 156 | 2 | $77.46 |
| Rare special item (knife / gloves) | 0.26% | 385 | 65 | $291.24 |
Most valuable drops
How it is calculated: Valve's published odds by rarity (rare special item 0.26%), every item equally likely within its rarity, 10% StatTrak (not for gloves), the float distribution measured by the community and today's cheaper listing of Skinport and CSFloat; key $2.49 (paid by card; with Steam balance it costs less in real money, which is the second return figure). Market value, not what you would get after marketplace fees. Compare every case →