Best CS2 cases to open
All 42 weapon cases ranked by what one opening returns on average (the market value of the drop against the case plus the key), recalculated every day with the latest prices. None of them pays for itself on average: every case is a loss in the long run.
Prices of 16 Oct 2026.
| # | Case | Case + key | Average drop | Return | Steam balance | Chance to profit | Most valuable drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  eSports 2013 Winter Case | $12.12 | $7.92 | 65% | 69% | 12.3% | Karambit | Fade (≈ $1,551.81) |
| 2 |  CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $13.63 | $8.79 | 64% | 68% | 9.5% | Karambit | Fade (≈ $1,551.81) |
| 3 |  Glove Case | $11.10 | $6.56 | 59% | 63% | 5.7% | Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (≈ $3,850.93) |
| 4 |  Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $6.38 | $3.73 | 59% | 65% | 10.7% | Karambit | Fade (≈ $1,551.81) |
| 5 |  Operation Wildfire Case | $4.81 | $2.62 | 54% | 63% | 7.6% | Bowie Knife | Slaughter (≈ $179.11) |
| 6 |  Operation Hydra Case | $27.63 | $14.66 | 53% | 54% | 7.1% | Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (≈ $3,850.93) |
| 7 |  CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $19.80 | $10.48 | 53% | 55% | 5.3% | Karambit | Fade (≈ $1,551.81) |
| 8 |  Gamma Case | $5.04 | $2.57 | 51% | 59% | 4.5% | Karambit | Gamma Doppler (≈ $1,491.71) |
| 9 |  eSports 2014 Summer Case | $12.34 | $6.25 | 51% | 53% | 5.8% | Karambit | Fade (≈ $1,551.81) |
| 10 |  Operation Broken Fang Case | $7.13 | $3.53 | 50% | 54% | 9.4% | Sport Gloves | Nocts (≈ $523.60) |
| 11 |  Shadow Case | $3.76 | $1.86 | 49% | 60% | 7.6% | Shadow Daggers | Fade (≈ $134.23) |
| 12 |  Huntsman Weapon Case | $8.68 | $4.26 | 49% | 53% | 5.3% | AK-47 | Vulcan (≈ $215.13) |
| 13 |  Chroma 2 Case | $5.59 | $2.72 | 49% | 55% | 5.0% | Karambit | Doppler (≈ $1,108.17) |
| 14 |  Prisma Case | $3.42 | $1.66 | 49% | 60% | 6.8% | Talon Knife | Doppler (≈ $715.30) |
| 15 |  Horizon Case | $3.78 | $1.83 | 48% | 58% | 7.8% | Talon Knife | Fade (≈ $700.23) |
| 16 |  Gamma 2 Case | $5.06 | $2.44 | 48% | 55% | 4.6% | Karambit | Gamma Doppler (≈ $1,491.71) |
| 17 |  Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | $5.50 | $2.60 | 47% | 54% | 4.6% | Karambit | Fade (≈ $1,551.81) |
| 18 |  Revolver Case | $4.80 | $2.26 | 47% | 54% | 4.9% | Karambit | Fade (≈ $1,551.81) |
| 19 |  Spectrum Case | $5.50 | $2.56 | 47% | 53% | 4.8% | Butterfly Knife | Doppler (≈ $1,875.15) |
| 20 |  Chroma Case | $6.62 | $3.06 | 46% | 51% | 5.0% | Karambit | Doppler (≈ $1,108.17) |
| 21 |  Shattered Web Case | $6.04 | $2.79 | 46% | 52% | 6.8% | Skeleton Knife | Fade (≈ $427.15) |
| 22 |  Operation Breakout Weapon Case | $8.96 | $4.13 | 46% | 50% | 4.2% | Butterfly Knife | Fade (≈ $1,917.25) |
| 23 |  Falchion Case | $3.84 | $1.74 | 45% | 54% | 7.8% | Falchion Knife | Slaughter (≈ $187.74) |
| 24 |  Winter Offensive Weapon Case | $10.89 | $4.89 | 45% | 48% | 5.7% | Karambit | Fade (≈ $1,551.81) |
| 25 |  Chroma 3 Case | $5.40 | $2.40 | 44% | 50% | 4.4% | Karambit | Doppler (≈ $1,108.17) |
| 26 |  Spectrum 2 Case | $4.93 | $2.18 | 44% | 51% | 4.7% | Butterfly Knife | Doppler (≈ $1,875.15) |
| 27 |  Operation Riptide Case | $9.26 | $4.08 | 44% | 47% | 6.8% | Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (≈ $1,504.59) |
| 28 |  Prisma 2 Case | $3.37 | $1.46 | 43% | 53% | 4.5% | Talon Knife | Doppler (≈ $715.30) |
| 29 |  Gallery Case | $3.02 | $1.25 | 41% | 53% | 7.2% | Kukri Knife | Fade (≈ $139.23) |
| 30 |  Snakebite Case | $2.75 | $1.13 | 41% | 54% | 7.2% | Sport Gloves | Nocts (≈ $523.60) |
| 31 |  CS20 Case | $3.18 | $1.27 | 40% | 50% | 5.4% | Classic Knife | Fade (≈ $228.70) |
| 32 |  Danger Zone Case | $3.36 | $1.33 | 40% | 49% | 4.8% | Talon Knife | Fade (≈ $700.23) |
| 33 |  Dreams & Nightmares Case | $3.39 | $1.23 | 36% | 45% | 4.2% | Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (≈ $1,504.59) |
| 34 |  Fever Case | $3.02 | $0.98 | 32% | 41% | 4.3% | Skeleton Knife | Doppler (≈ $512.26) |
| 35 |  Recoil Case | $2.68 | $0.84 | 31% | 41% | 4.0% | Sport Gloves | Nocts (≈ $523.60) |
| 36 |  Clutch Case | $2.83 | $0.87 | 31% | 40% | 3.8% | Sport Gloves | Vice (≈ $479.42) |
| 37 |  CS:GO Weapon Case | $100.10 | $29.97 | 30% | 30% | 5.1% | Karambit | Fade (≈ $1,551.81) |
| 38 |  Operation Bravo Case | $51.20 | $14.94 | 29% | 30% | 4.6% | Karambit | Fade (≈ $1,551.81) |
| 39 |  eSports 2013 Case | $42.92 | $12.22 | 28% | 29% | 3.6% | Karambit | Fade (≈ $1,551.81) |
| 40 |  Fracture Case | $2.84 | $0.79 | 28% | 36% | 3.7% | Skeleton Knife | Fade (≈ $427.15) |
| 41 |  Revolution Case | $2.65 | $0.73 | 28% | 37% | 2.1% | Sport Gloves | Vice (≈ $479.42) |
| 42 |  Kilowatt Case | $2.59 | $0.68 | 26% | 35% | 3.3% | Kukri Knife | Fade (≈ $139.23) |
How it is calculated
Valve's published odds by rarity (rare special item 0.26%), every item equally likely within its rarity, 10% StatTrak (not gloves), the float distribution measured by the community mapped to each skin's float range, and today's cheaper listing of Skinport and CSFloat. Key: $2.49 paid by card; the second figure is the return when you pay it with Steam balance, which is worth about 74% of its face value on these marketplaces. Doppler knives count at their cheapest phase, so cases with them are slightly undervalued.
This is market value: selling a drop nets less after marketplace fees, and prices move every day. Opening cases is gambling; the numbers are for comparing cases, not a reason to open them.